Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.007184 0.008087 0.009074 0.010235 0.011568 0.013052 0.014836
2024-11-03 0.005739 0.006958 0.008408 0.010269 0.012611 0.015478 0.019284
2024-11-10 0.005117 0.006520 0.008285 0.010690 0.013916 0.018141 0.024169
2024-11-17 0.004464 0.005910 0.007811 0.010526 0.014358 0.019656 0.027678
2024-11-24 0.004032 0.005517 0.007545 0.010563 0.015019 0.021485 0.031813
2024-12-01 0.003611 0.005080 0.007153 0.010348 0.015255 0.022682 0.035123
2024-12-08 0.003382 0.004886 0.007075 0.010565 0.016133 0.024918 0.040346
2024-12-15 0.003128 0.004627 0.006867 0.010549 0.016627 0.026586 0.044843
2024-12-22 0.002806 0.004232 0.006414 0.010092 0.016340 0.026913 0.047032
2024-12-29 0.002614 0.004021 0.006224 0.010035 0.016706 0.028374 0.051455
2025-01-05 0.002554 0.004012 0.006352 0.010516 0.018042 0.031695 0.059884
2025-01-12 0.002336 0.003728 0.006004 0.010141 0.017804 0.032096 0.062597
2025-01-19 0.002155 0.003498 0.005737 0.009899 0.017815 0.033031 0.066694
2025-01-26 0.002038 0.003367 0.005629 0.009937 0.018365 0.035100 0.073606
2025-02-02 0.001990 0.003349 0.005716 0.010342 0.019672 0.038865 0.084969
2025-02-09 0.001862 0.003181 0.005519 0.010184 0.019825 0.040232 0.091010
2025-02-16 0.001773 0.003076 0.005427 0.010219 0.020379 0.042533 0.099736
2025-02-23 0.001660 0.002918 0.005225 0.010013 0.020389 0.043613 0.105563
2025-03-02 0.001609 0.002871 0.005227 0.010222 0.021327 0.046951 0.117973
2025-03-09 0.001535 0.002775 0.005126 0.010206 0.021760 0.049151 0.127731
2025-03-16 0.001419 0.002590 0.004839 0.009765 0.021166 0.048760 0.130058
2025-03-23 0.001353 0.002500 0.004733 0.009711 0.021473 0.050672 0.139549
2025-03-30 0.001345 0.002522 0.004857 0.010174 0.023076 0.056157 0.161165